On April 17th, the Texas Education Agency (TEA) published updated teacher workforce data, which offers the latest snapshot of how Texas’s educator labor market is evolving. While it’s still very early in the implementation of recent policy changes — including provisions in House Bill 2 (HB 2)— this data presents a timely opportunity to examine underlying trends in teacher supply, certification, and retention.

Drop in Attrition, Overall and Among Early Career Teachers

Top-line attrition measures help us understand how the teacher labor market is functioning in the aggregate and signals the scale of future demand to replace teachers who leave. In the 2025-26 academic year, overall attrition fell to 12% — the lowest rate since 2021-22. This is a trend reflected across geographic type and school system size; however, it’s worth remembering that this rate is still higher than pre-pandemic levels and represents more than 44,600 teachers who left Texas classrooms.

A more specific lens is early-career attrition, particularly among teachers in their first five years. These educators are historically the most likely to leave the profession and, conversely, the most likely to grow and improve their practice, making them a key focus of recent reforms. The Teacher Retention Allotment included in HB 2 awards an initial pay bump for teachers when they reach their third year and doubles when they reach their fifth year. Those payments began at the start of the current academic year, meaning this dataset offers one of the first opportunities to assess whether incremental compensation is beginning to improve retention among early-career teachers.

Overall, attrition for teachers in years 1-5 fell to 18.8%, down from its peak of 24.9% in 2022-23. The Retention Allotment was weighted more generously for small – primarily rural – districts with fewer than 5,000 students. In rural districts, attrition for year 1-5 teachers continued a downward trend and fell to 22%.

Slight Increase in Supply of Certified Teachers

The next major area to examine is the overall supply of teachers — particularly the balance between certified and uncertified educators. At this stage, we should be careful not to expect major shifts resulting from newly funded preparation pathways or certification reforms under HB 2 as many of those mechanisms won’t go fully into effect until next school year.

Still, the data offers early directional signals. In 2025-26, Texas produced 16,700 newly certified teachers, an increase of 1,400 over the prior year and the most since 2022-23.

While more detailed data from TEA will ultimately be needed to confirm participation in specific pathways funded through the new PREP Allotment, this data provides early clues that behavior is starting to shift.

Shifting Away from Uncertified Teachers

Another important question is whether districts are beginning to adjust their hiring practices in response to policy changes that will increasingly restrict the use of uncertified teachers.

Historically, districts have not appeared to prefer uncertified teachers; rather, reliance on them has largely been attributed to shortages of certified candidates. Are we beginning to see substitution effects? For example, as certified teacher supply increases, do we also see a corresponding decline in uncertified hiring?

The percentage of newly hired uncertified teachers in the 2025-26 school year fell to 27%, down from 31% in 2024-25 and the lowest since 2021-22. This rate is still far higher than a decade ago when it was just 7% and appears to be largely offset by an increase in teachers re-entering the profession.

District-level data (available on view 4 of this dashboard) is especially worth examining to identify which districts are adjusting their hiring patterns and which are not. If districts continue to show growing reliance on uncertified teachers, that may signal persistent supply constraints or other challenges to the mandated phasing out of uncertified teachers in foundational subjects.

A Word of Caution: Don’t Over-read Early Data

It’s important to emphasize that this dataset reflects the 2025-26 school year, meaning most hiring and staffing decisions were made before the full effects of HB 2 could take hold. Despite these limitations, this early data is informative and welcome news. The stabilization and gradual improvement are noteworthy.

But it is equally important not to overinterpret short-term movement. The underlying challenges in teacher supply and retention have developed over many years, and in some cases decades. One data release is not enough to suggest structural resolution, rather an early sign that policy is beginning to modestly bend long-standing trends.

We are observing a system in transition — and one that has not yet fully responded to new policy signals. The system is only beginning to shift, but the most meaningful changes are still ahead as implementation matures.